Prediction markets let you take a money-backed position on the outcome of a real-world event — an election, a sports final, an economic figure, a crypto milestone, and more. You buy shares in the outcome you think will happen, and if you’re right, each share pays out. In Zengo, Prediction Markets are powered by Polymarket and built right into the app.
Where to find it: You can browse and trade prediction markets directly inside Zengo, in the Predictions tab — no separate account and no app switching. For the step-by-step walkthrough, see How to use Prediction Markets in Zengo.
Each market is built around a single question with clearly defined outcomes, such as:
“Will this team win the championship?”
“Will Bitcoin close above $150,000 this year?”
“Who will win the next presidential election?”
You trade shares in each possible outcome and profit if your side turns out to be correct. Because prices reflect what thousands of traders collectively believe, many people also read prediction markets as a real-time gauge of how likely an event is — not just a way to take a position.
⚠️ Not available in every region. Prediction Markets aren’t accessible in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Singapore, Poland, Romania, Thailand, Taiwan, Ukraine, Ontario (Canada), or countries on the U.S. sanctions list. This mirrors Polymarket’s geographic restrictions and may change. If the feature isn’t available in your region, the Predictions tab won’t appear.
How do prediction markets work?
The core idea is simple: prediction markets let you trade on information. Every market follows the same lifecycle:
Market creation → Market movement → Market resolution
Creating and resolving markets is handled by the platform (in Zengo’s case, Polymarket). As a trader, you focus only on choosing and managing your positions. Here’s the mechanics:
Each outcome — like Yes / No or Team A / Team B — is priced between $0.00 and $1.00.
You buy shares in whichever outcome you expect to happen.
Prices move continuously as people enter and exit positions. You can sell your position at any time before the market closes.
When the event concludes, the market resolves through an oracle, which reports the verified result on-chain.
If your outcome is correct, each share is worth $1.00; if it’s wrong, your shares settle at $0.00.
All trades happen peer-to-peer. On Polymarket, every Yes/No share pair is fully backed by $1.00 in USDC on Polygon — that shared collateral is what guarantees payouts to the winners once the market resolves.
How prices move
A share’s price is also its implied probability. If a “Yes” share trades at $0.65, the market is effectively saying there’s about a 65% chance that outcome happens. In other words, you’re buying a “discounted dollar”: if you’re right it becomes $1.00, and if you’re wrong it becomes worthless.
Prices don’t sit still. They shift as new traders come and go, and as the underlying story changes — breaking news, polls, results, and credible leaks all move the odds. In thinner, lower-liquidity markets, a single large trade can move the price more sharply.
Because you can buy or sell any time before the resolution date, you’re never locked in. That lets you:
Lock in profit early if the market has moved your way.
Limit losses if it has moved against you.
How markets resolve
Every market has a resolution date and a clear set of rules that define exactly how it settles — the resolution source and how edge cases are handled. You can read these on the About tab of any event before you trade. When the event concludes, the market closes and settles automatically through Polymarket’s oracle, which posts the verified outcome on-chain. Once the result is final, winners can claim their winnings, and the collateral is paid out.
Typical timing:
Undisputed: roughly 2 hours after the outcome is proposed.
Disputed: 4–6 days if the result is challenged and goes to a community vote.
What is an oracle?
An oracle is the system that brings real-world information onto the blockchain — the bridge between off-chain reality and on-chain settlement. Polymarket uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle, a decentralized process:
An outcome is proposed based on the market’s predefined rules.
Anyone can challenge it during a review window.
If it’s disputed, UMA token holders vote to determine the final result.
The smart contract resolves and pays out winners accordingly.
Because Polymarket’s oracle fully handles resolution, Zengo has no control over how a market resolves and cannot override an outcome. If you believe a market settled incorrectly, disputes are raised through Polymarket’s process.
How are prediction markets different from betting?
Both involve staking value on an outcome, but prediction markets run on an open, peer-to-peer model rather than a traditional “house” or bookmaker.
Prediction markets | Traditional betting |
Peer-to-peer trading | You bet against the house |
Prices move dynamically with sentiment | Fixed odds at the time of the bet |
Sell or adjust your position anytime | The bet is locked in until it settles |
Prices double as a live probability signal | Odds are set by the operator |
⚠️ Know the risk. Prediction markets carry real financial risk — including price swings, limited liquidity, and regulatory uncertainty. If a market resolves against you, your shares are worth $0.00. Only trade what you’re comfortable losing.
Ready to try it? Open the Predictions tab in Zengo to explore markets, and see How to use Prediction Markets in Zengo for the full step-by-step guide to funding, trading, claiming, and withdrawing.
Prediction Markets is powered by Polymarket. Market outcomes, resolution, and liquidity are managed by Polymarket independently of Zengo. Zengo is a self-custodial wallet and never holds your funds on your behalf. Trading prediction markets involves financial risk and may not be available in your region.