What are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets allow people to take a position on the outcome of future real-world events. These events can include elections, sports results, economic indicators, geopolitical developments, crypto milestones, and more.
Each market is built around a specific question with clearly defined outcomes, such as "Yes" or "No." The price of each outcome reflects the market's current estimate of the likelihood that the event will happen.
Unlike traditional betting platforms, prediction markets operate as peer-to-peer marketplaces where participants trade positions with one another. As new information becomes available, prices move to reflect changing market sentiment and expectations.
Participants can choose to hold their positions until the event is resolved or close them earlier by selling before the market closes.
Prediction Markets in Zengo are powered by Polymarket, the world's largest decentralized prediction market platform, and are integrated directly into the Zengo app.
How prediction markets work
Each market is structured around a clear question with defined outcomes — usually Yes or No, though multi-outcome markets exist (e.g., "Who will win the NBA Finals?").
Shares are priced between $0.00 and $1.00. That price reflects the market's collective estimate of the probability of that outcome. If "Yes" shares are trading at $0.72, the market is saying there's roughly a 72% chance the event happens.
How shares settle:
Every Yes/No share pair is fully backed by $1.00 in USDC in polygon (Polymarket's stablecoin)
If your outcome is correct, each share pays out $1.00 at resolution
If your outcome is wrong, those shares are worth $0.00
You don't have to wait for a resolution. You can sell your position at any time before the market closes — locking in a profit if odds move in your favor, or cutting a loss if they haven't.
Order types:
Market order — Executes immediately at the current price. You specify the dollar amount to invest.
Limit order — Executes only when the market reaches a price you set. You define the price, number of shares, and expiration timeframe.
How Polymarket works inside Zengo
Zengo has built a native Prediction Markets experience directly into the app. You don't need to leave Zengo, use WalletConnect, or manage a separate account on Polymarket's website.
Here's what that means in practice:
Browse and discover markets inside Zengo, organized by category and ranked by activity
Fund your prediction balance from your existing Zengo wallet — including automatic swap if you don't hold USDC on Polygon.
Buy and sell shares without switching apps
Track your open positions, and market performance in a dedicated Predictions tab
Claim winnings directly within Zengo when markets resolve
Withdraw your prediction balance back to your Zengo wallet at any time
Your Zengo wallet balance and your prediction balance are displayed separately. Funds must be transferred into your prediction balance before they can be used for trading and can be withdrawn back to your wallet at any time.
Managing your predictions
Your wallet is organized into two tabs:
Tokens
View your crypto assets and balances.
Send, receive, swap, and buy supported assets.
Predictions
View and manage your prediction activity.
Access your prediction balance.
Add funds or withdraw funds.
Track both active and resolved predictions.
If you have active or past predictions, a badge will appear next to the Predictions tab showing the total number of prediction positions associated with your account.
Inside the Predictions tab, you can switch between:
Open
View all active predictions that have not yet resolved.
Monitor current value, potential payout, and market performance.
Sell positions before resolution if desired.
Closed
View predictions that have already resolved.
See whether each prediction was won or lost.
Review previous positions and payouts.
This makes it easy to track your prediction activity separately from your crypto assets while keeping everything in one place inside Zengo.
Before you start
What you need:
A Zengo wallet (any tier)
USDC on Polygon (Polymarket's stablecoin, bridged USDC on Polygon) to fund your prediction balance
If you don't hold USDC, Zengo will offer to swap from any token in your wallet
If you hold no assets at all, Zengo will guide you to purchase USDC on Polygon first
A small amount of POL (Polygon's native token) for network fees
If you don't have enough POL for gas, Zengo will prompt you to buy some before proceeding
What to know before trading:
Prediction Markets are not available in all regions — see the Availability section below
All trades are on-chain and final — they cannot be reversed once submitted
Market outcomes are determined by Polymarket's resolution process, not by Zengo
Prediction markets carry real financial risk. You can lose the full amount you invest.
Step-by-step: Using Prediction Markets in Zengo
First time
When you open Prediction Markets for the first time, Zengo walks you through a short onboarding flow:
What are Predictions? — An intro to how prediction markets work
Pick your outcome — How to choose Yes or No and buy shares
Get rewarded for being right — How winnings are paid out at resolution
What are you interested in? — Select categories to personalize your feed (Politics, Sports, Crypto, Finance, Geopolitics, and more)
Finding a market
The Predictions page is organized into:
Categories — Trending, Breaking, New, Politics, Sports, Crypto, Finance, Geopolitics, and more
Relevant for you — Personalized based on your past activity and searches
Ends today — Markets closing in the next 24 hours
Search — Find any market by keyword, event name, or outcome
Each market card shows the event name, possible outcomes, current probabilities, and total trading volume. Tapping a market takes you to the full event details page.
Reading an event
The event details page shows:
The market question and possible outcomes with current probabilities
A trend chart showing how odds have moved over time (1H, 6H, 1D, 1W, 1M, All)
Total market volume and end date
Resolution rules — how and when the market settles, the resolution source, and any edge cases
Your open position on this event (if you have one), including amount invested, potential payout, and current P&L
Add funds to your prediction balance
Before you can place a prediction, you'll need to add funds to your prediction balance.
Tap Add Funds from the Predictions tab and choose one of the available funding methods:
Use crypto already in your Zengo wallet
Select an asset from your existing wallet balance.
Enter the amount you'd like to transfer.
Review the transaction details and confirm.
Receive crypto from another wallet
Transfer crypto from an external wallet to your Zengo wallet.
Once received, use those funds to add to your prediction balance.
Fund directly from your eToro account (eToro customers only)
Transfer funds from your connected eToro account.
Once the transfer is completed, the funds will be available to use for predictions.
Buy crypto
Purchase crypto directly through Zengo using one of our supported providers.
Once the purchase is completed, you can use those funds to add to your prediction balance.
Transfers to your prediction balance typically take a few minutes to complete. When the transfer is complete, your prediction balance will update automatically and will be available to use immediately for trading.
⚠️ If you don't have enough POL to cover the network fee, you'll be notified before the transaction is submitted.
Placing a prediction (buying shares)
Open an event and select your outcome (e.g., Yes or No)
Enter the dollar amount you want to invest
Zengo shows your available balance and the potential payout if your outcome resolves correctly
Review and confirm
Your position appears immediately in your Predictions tab
Selling before resolution
You can exit any open position before the market closes.
Go to the event details page for an open position
Tap Sell
Review the confirmation screen: shares being sold, price, and your P&L
Confirm — proceeds are credited to your prediction balance immediately
Withdrawing your prediction balance
To move funds from your prediction balance back to your Zengo wallet:
Tap Withdraw from the Predictions page
Select the amount to withdraw
Review the transaction fee and the total you'll receive
Confirm — both your asset balance and prediction balance update immediately
Understanding market outcomes and settlement
When the real-world event concludes, Polymarket resolves the market through its UMA Optimistic Oracle — a decentralized process where anyone can propose an outcome, and anyone can challenge it.
Typical resolution timeline:
Undisputed: approximately 2 hours after the outcome is proposed
Disputed: 4–6 days if the result is challenged and goes to a community vote
If you won:
You'll receive a push notification with the event name, final outcome, and amount won. Tapping it takes you directly to the market.
Tap Claim — or Claim All if you have multiple winning positions
The claimed amount is added to your prediction balance immediately
Withdraw it to your Zengo wallet or use it for future trades
If you lost:
Zengo clearly marks the position as lost with the outcome and amount. Losing shares settle at $0.00 — there's nothing to claim.
Push notifications you'll receive:
When an open position changes by ±10% in value
When an event you participated in resolves as a win
Fees and network costs
Zengo may charge a small taker fee on most market categories, applied at trade execution. Makers (users whose orders sit in the order book) are never charged fees.
Fees peak when a market is closest to 50/50 odds and decrease toward extremes. Polymarket does not charge fees for depositing or withdrawing.
Network fees (gas) on Polygon are small but required for funding, withdrawing, and claiming. You need a small amount of POL in your wallet. Zengo will alert you if you don't have enough.
Swap fees apply if you fund your prediction balance using a token other than USDC. The swap happens automatically and the fee is shown clearly before you confirm.
All fees are displayed on the confirmation screen before any transaction is submitted.
Security and custody
Zengo is a self-custodial wallet. Your funds are always controlled by your wallet — Zengo never holds them on your behalf.
When you fund your prediction balance, your USDC moves to Polymarket's smart contracts on Polygon. These contracts are audited and operate without a central party. All positions are recorded onchain and publicly verifiable.
What this means in practice:
Zengo cannot reverse trades or recover funds from resolved markets
Blockchain transactions are final once confirmed
Market outcomes are determined by Polymarket's resolution process — Zengo has no influence over how a market resolves
Disputed resolutions are handled by Polymarket's UMA oracle community process
Zengo's MPC security protects your wallet and account access. Your prediction activity is tied to your Zengo wallet address on Polygon. If you recover your Zengo account, your prediction balance and open positions are accessible once recovery is complete.
Availability
Prediction Markets in Zengo are not available in the following regions:
United States, United Kingdom, Australia, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Singapore, Poland, Romania, Thailand, Taiwan, Ukraine, Ontario (Canada), and countries on the U.S. sanctions list.
This reflects Polymarket's geographic restrictions and may change. If Prediction Markets is unavailable in your region, the feature will not be accessible from your Zengo app.
Important things to know
You can lose money. If the event resolves against your position, your shares settle at $0.00. Only trade what you're comfortable losing.
Prices move constantly. The price you see when browsing may not be the price at which your order fills, especially in low-liquidity markets.
Sports markets: Outstanding limit orders are automatically cancelled when a game starts. Monitor your orders closely around scheduled start times.
Resolution takes time. Most markets resolve within a few hours, but disputed resolutions can take 4–6 days. Your funds remain in the position until the market settles.
Always read the resolution rules. Every market has defined resolution criteria — source, edge cases, and what happens in ambiguous situations. These are visible in the event details page under the About tab.
USDC is the trading currency. All trades are in USDC. You receive USDC when you win or sell. You can withdraw USDC to your Zengo wallet at any time.
Frequently asked questions
Do I need a separate Polymarket account?
No. Zengo handles the connection natively. You trade through your Zengo wallet without creating a separate account or visiting Polymarket's website.
What currency do I need to trade?
USDC — Polymarket's stablecoin (bridged USDC on Polygon). If you don't have USDC, Zengo can swap from any token in your wallet during the funding flow.
Can I use funds from my regular Zengo wallet?
Yes. When you fund your prediction balance, Zengo draws from your asset wallet. The two balances are displayed separately in the app.
How are my winnings paid out?
When a market resolves in your favor, you'll get a push notification. Claim your winnings inside Zengo — they're added to your prediction balance and can be withdrawn to your wallet at any time.
What happens if I don't claim my winnings?
Your winnings remain in Polymarket's smart contracts until you claim them. There's no expiry, but it's good practice to claim soon after a market resolves.
Can I exit a position early?
Yes. You can sell your shares at any point before the market closes. Proceeds go to your prediction balance immediately.
What happens if a market is disputed?
Resolution is escalated to Polymarket's UMA oracle — a community vote that typically takes 4–6 days. Zengo displays the expected timeline and status on the event details page.
Why is my prediction balance separate from my wallet balance?
Polymarket requires funds to be deposited into its trading infrastructure before you can trade. Your prediction balance is what's available on Polymarket. You can move funds between the two via Fund and Withdraw.
Are there fees for depositing or withdrawing?
Polymarket doesn't charge fees for deposits or withdrawals. You'll pay a small Polygon network fee (gas) for both. If you deposit using a token other than USDC, a swap fee also applies — shown before you confirm.
Is Prediction Markets available on Zengo Web?
The mobile app launches first. Zengo Web support is coming in a future update.
What if I don't hold any crypto?
Zengo will redirect you to purchase USDC on Polygon. You'll also need a small amount of POL for transaction fees.
Prediction Markets is powered by Polymarket. Market outcomes, resolution, and liquidity are managed by Polymarket independently of Zengo. Zengo is not responsible for market results or resolution decisions. Trading prediction markets involves financial risk and may not be available in your region.